𝐒𝐞𝐬𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞

– African origins are driving a bearish price trend from December onwards
– Brazil has become main India’s supplier
– 6% y/y increase in Ethiopian exports

International prices for sesame seeds are easing around as African origins (Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Mozambique) are starting to ship their new crops and sea shipping services between Nigeria and Central Asia have fallen to three weeks, going back to pre-Covid timeframes. African sesame seeds have fallen by $100 per metric ton on average between November-December. However, the Houthi attacks to vessels crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait into the Red Sea have made the main sea shipping companies to halt traffics in this area, key for Sudan and Ethiopia.

𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚
The disappointing Indian sesame production has fueled imports of African seeds, although the domestic demand is flat, according to the Indian trader M. Lakhamsi in its latest market update.
Indian importers have purchased around 30,000 metric tons of Nigerian sesame seeds from September-October 2024 with shipments to be delivered from November-December. These shipments might cut quotes in the Indian market.

𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐮𝐝𝐚𝐧

Ethiopia and Sudan are offering their new crops, although the former is still suffering logistics bottlenecks. Prices for Ethiopian and Nigerian sesame seeds have fallen by $100 per metric ton between November-December. The sea shipping timeframe between India and Nigeria has fallen to around three weeks.
Spot prices averaged 17,200 (2,064/metric ton) in the Unjha (Gujarat, Northwest) wholesale market on 15 December, 5% less m/m and 4% more year-on-year. Futures prices also followed a bearish trend, ranging from INR17,000-17,400/quintal for deliveries from December 2023-February 2024, 9% less m/m.

𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑒, 𝑀. 𝐿𝑎𝑘ℎ𝑎𝑚𝑠𝑖 𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑞𝑢𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑠:
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑠ℎ 99-1-1 : $1,980/𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑛, $15 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑊ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑠ℎ 𝑆𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑒𝑥, 𝑚𝑖𝑛 99.95 % 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦: $2,090/𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑛, $30 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟
𝑁𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝐽𝑒𝑡 𝐵𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑆𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑒𝑥, 𝑚𝑖𝑛 99.95 % 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦: $2,235/𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑛, 2% 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑚/𝑚
𝐻𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑒𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒, 𝑚𝑖𝑛 99.95 % 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦: $2,340/𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑛, $10 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟
𝐻𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑆𝑒𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒, 𝑚𝑖𝑛 99.97 % 𝑝𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦 : $2,360/𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑛, $5 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑂𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑒𝑟.

Indian exports fell by 5% y/y to 181,027 metric tons but grew by 13% y/y to $380.9 million in January-September 2023. The main importers were South Korea (17,445 metric tons, -53% y/y); the US (13,529 metric tons, +6% y/y) and China (13,068 metric tons, -14% y/y).

Indian imports reached 74,410 metric tons in January-September 2023, up from 15,540 metric tons in the same period in 2022. The main suppliers were Sudan and Brazil, accounting for 42% and 39%, respectively.

𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚
China’s imports fell by 19% y/y to 779,000 metric tons in January-October 2023. Niger, Tanzania and Togo were the main suppliers, accounting for 21%, 16% and 13%, respectively.

Niger (West Africa) has supplied around 160,000 metric tons to China in January-October, strengthening its role as the main supplier and cutting market share to other African origins such as Sudan or Ethiopia, despite the political instability in the former.

𝐒𝐮𝐝𝐚𝐧
Sudanese exporters are offering white sesame seeds at $1,750/metric ton FOB currently, down from $2,250/metric ton in November. The sesame origins are controlled by the army and rebel fighters were not focused on stealing them to sell them in the domestic market as they do with staples such as peanuts, Fares Oufi, commercial director at FAAS Trade and Investment, UK, which represents Africorp International, explained to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

𝐄𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐚
Ethiopia’s exports rose by 6% y/y to 104,280 metric tons in January-November 2023. The main importers were Israel, the UAE and Turkey, accounting for 36%, 18% and 10%, respectively.
Whitish Wollega grade 3-5 averaged $2,030/metric ton FOB Djibouti this November, 6% more m/m and 29% more y/y.

𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐥
Brazil started to expand the sesame planted area under Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019-23), after signing a trade deal with India. However, Brazilian exports to this Asian market have been at lows until 2022, starting a gradual increase in 2023. Brazil’s exports reached 142,234 metric tons in January-November 2023, up from 36,260 metric tons in January-November 2022. The main importers were India, Turkey and Guatemala accounting for 38%, 23% and 14%, respectively.

𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤
New crops in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Tanzania have secured the global supply. In addition, the expansion in the Chinese crop and huge carry-over stocks kept by Sudan, due to logistics bottlenecks as a consequence of the civil war, are drawing a promising supply outlook.

However, the Houthi attacks to vessels in the Read Sea are a game changer for the Ethiopian and Sudanese supply.

(IHSmarkit)