𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝘂𝗺𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗯𝘆 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀

– Positive progress with sowings is also a bearish influence
– Turmeric losses viewed as limited
– Guar seed and gum pushed up by shrinking supplies

Indian cumin seed (jeera) futures slumped about 6% tracking reports of sluggish exports, SMC Global Securities observed in its Commodity Daily Report (Agri) of 19 December.

The firm noted that Indian cumin seed exports tumbled to 6,200 metric tons in October 2023 against the 11,700 metric tons reached in the same month a year ago. India’s total cumin seed exports for the 2023-24 season to the end of October were reported to be 34% lower than those reached in the same period of the 2022=23 season.

SMC Global Securities said the movement in cumin seed prices is expected to track cues from sowing progress, which, based on the provided information, is running smoothly due to favorable weather conditions. “Favorable weather is crucial for a successful crop, and it seems to be positively impacting the sowing progress,” the firm added.

About 433,000 hectares was sown under cumin seed as of 11 December in Gujarat compared with 224,000 ha of the previous year. Similarly, about 6,600 ha was sown under cumin seed in Rajasthan so far versus 5,600 ha of the previous year.

SMC Global Securities predicted that cumin seed is likely to trade in a range of 35,000-41,000 rupees ($421.30-493.52) per quintal.

Turmeric
Indian turmeric futures are currently facing pressure due to muted domestic demand. In addition, sluggish export inquiries at prevailing rates are contributing to negative market sentiments.

Exports dropped to 10,310 metric tons in October 2023 compared with 11,170 metric tons in the same month of the previous year. “Despite the current challenges, the losses in turmeric futures are expected to be limited. This is attributed to the bleak production prospects for the upcoming season, which acts as a supporting factor for the market. Expectations of a fall in production for the marketing year 2024-25 are mentioned as a positive factor for the turmeric market. The estimated production decline of 10%-12% adds to the overall bullish sentiment,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Turmeric April futures are projected to trade in a range of INR14,100-15,000/quintal. “This provides a specific range within which market participants can anticipate price movements,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Coriander seed
Coriander seed (dhaniya) prices declined due to profit booking at the futures platform supported by muted buying in the domestic market.

Coriander seed prices are expected to trade with a positive bias, primarily due to slower sowing progress for the forthcoming season. Sowing activities for coriander seed this year are slower compared with those of 2022. In Gujarat, only 108,000 ha were sown as of 11 December, whereas it was 207,000 ha in the previous year. Similarly, in Rajasthan, about 47,200 ha were sown compared with 50,000 ha in the previous year.

SMC Global Securities expects coriander seed prices to trade in a range of INR7,100-7,600/quintal.

Mentha oil
Mentha oil prices are expected to trade on a negative note primarily due to limited buying in the domestic market.

In addition, the sluggish export demand for mentha oil and menthol is identified as a factor putting pressure on prices. The export of menthol and mentha oil from India declined 15.9% y/y to 7,300 metric tons and 19% y/y to 1,060 metric tons, respectively during the period from April 2023 to October 2023.

SMC Global Securities predicted that mentha oil is likely to trade in a range of INR915-950.

Guar seed and guar gum
Guar seed futures are expected to trade higher due to shrinking supplies in the market.

“The slower pace of arrivals is prompting millers to buy at prevailing rates, given the improved crush margin with the rise in guar meal prices,” SMC Global Securities noted.

Indian guar gum exports increased in October 2023 as India exported about 23,000 metric tons of guar gum against the 21,500 metric tons in the same month last year.

Rising seasonal demand for guar meal is expected to keep the crushing demand for guar seed higher in the coming weeks. Overall, the production of guar seed has seen a decline of 11%-13% y/y in 2022-23, contributing to tighter inventory levels for millers.

Guar seed prices are expected to trade in range of INR5,250-5,600/quintal whereas guar gum will trade in a range of INR10,300-11,000/quintal.