BRIGHT AND DARK COLOR SCHEMES FOR END-OF-YEAR AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

In the wake of the fluctuating patterns of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic product exports over the past ten months and the promising yet challenging outlook for the last two months of 2023, businesses in this sector need to closely monitor the situation. This will allow them to continue pursuing suitable strategies to capitalize on growth opportunities in the final stretch of the year.

In mid-October 2023, following negotiations and focused production efforts, a container carrying 10 tons of green sticky rice cakes produced by Bà Ba Hội Cooperative (Tam Ky City, Quang Nam Province) was shipped to the United States to serve the traditional Tet festival for the Vietnamese diaspora.

Positive Signals

While the value of this cargo may be modest, it represents a positive sign for the economic cooperation in the region as it contributes to boosting agricultural and aquatic product exports in the year-end consumption season.

In the seafood sector, as it enters the final stretch of the year, it still faces various challenges. However, some businesses have observed significant growth due to their proactive adaptability and market flexibility. A positive sign is that the decline in exports has started to slow down, and market demand is gradually increasing.

Mr. Nguyen Van Dao, the CEO of Gò Đàng Seafood Company (Đồng Tháp Province), anticipates that the seafood market will experience positive developments and transformations from now until the end of the year.

According to the latest forecast by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), with a gradual recovery from various markets, seafood exports in the fourth quarter of 2023 may reach $2.4 billion, equivalent to the same period last year. This is expected to bring the total seafood export value for 2023 to $9 billion, a decrease of 17% compared to 2022.

The recovery of seafood export figures in the coming months largely depends on two main markets: the United States and China. Both of these markets are showing optimistic signs in terms of demand. Orders from these markets are increasing, though export prices remain lower than the same period last year.

In a recent report on business performance in the fourth quarter of 2023, one of the leading catfish exporters, Vĩnh Hoàn Corporation (VHC), mentioned that import demand is slowly recovering in the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly due to Western holidays approaching.

However, they also highlighted the risk that high catfish inventories in importing countries might persist, and it is expected that import demand will not fully recover until June 2024 due to prolonged inflation affecting consumer demand.

Aside from the seafood sector’s efforts to recover, the most notable market acceleration at the end of the year for agricultural and aquatic products is seen in the rice sector. Many businesses in the Mekong Delta region have seized the opportunity to boost their rice exports, negotiate reasonable prices to benefit both farmers and companies.

As of mid-October 2023, Vietnam had exported nearly 6.73 million tons of rice, earning over $3.73 billion, a 17% increase in volume and a significant 34.5% increase in value compared to the same period last year.

With these figures, Vietnam’s rice exports have surpassed the $3.65 billion milestone set in 2011, officially establishing a new historical record after 34 years of participation in the global market. According to calculations by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in the best-case scenario, Vietnam could export around 7.8 million tons of rice this year, with export value ranging from $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion.

Adopting Appropriate Strategies to Seek Growth Opportunities

In vegetable and fruit exports, recent forecasts suggest that the total export value for the year may reach around $5.5 billion. Among these, durian has become a significant contributor to the impressive growth of the sector. Vegetable and fruit exports have shown remarkable growth over the past ten months, reaching $4.9 billion, a 78.4% increase compared to the same period in 2022.

To achieve such remarkable export numbers, it is important to acknowledge the flexibility and efforts of companies in the vegetable and fruit sector. These businesses have expanded their market presence, increased trade connections, invested in deep processing, and implemented advanced procedures.

As Nguyen Van Hien, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Chanh Viet Investment and Trading Corporation (Long An), shares, the company has partnered with importers in a B2B (business-to-business) model to provide them with raw materials for further processing of cucumber products.

Furthermore, to maintain export growth, the company actively seeks new customers and markets while focusing on existing customers to meet their demands.

The fourth quarter of the year still offers significant opportunities for vegetable and fruit exports as consumption demand peaks during the holiday season. The key question is how businesses and cooperatives can capitalize on these opportunities to increase their export revenue.

In this landscape of bright and dark hues of agricultural and aquatic exports over the past ten months, there are some standout performers, including cashew nut exports. According to forecasts, Vietnam’s cashew nut export activity will remain vibrant in the last two months of the year as consumption demand for cashews surges during holidays and festivals. In the first nine months of 2023, Vietnam’s cashew nut exports were estimated at 456,000 tons, valued at $2.6 billion, marking a 19.6% increase in volume and a 14.3% increase in value compared to the same period last year.

However, alongside these positive developments, there are also some challenging aspects in agricultural and aquatic exports over the past ten months, with five remaining items experiencing declines: seafood, tea, pepper, cassava, and coffee.

For example, cumulative pepper exports have fallen by 10% compared to the same period last year up to mid-October 2023. It is likely that the downward trend will continue over the last two months of 2023 as most importers have already secured their supplies.

Moreover, recent reports from Nedspice Group and Simexco Daklak both forecast a 15% decrease in Vietnam’s pepper production in 2024.

Similarly, cassava export revenues have decreased by nearly 10% over the past ten months. Nevertheless, there is still potential for recovery and export growth in this sector in the last months of 2023 as the high point of consumption for Chinese food products approaches, which will positively impact the export of cassava and cassava-derived products to this market.

In summary, in the midst of the bright and dark shades of agricultural and aquatic exports over the past ten months and the promising yet challenging forecasts for the future, businesses in this sector need to closely monitor the situation to continue adopting suitable strategies for seeking growth opportunities in the final months of the year.

Source: VNBusiness