Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts -03 June 2021
– 9% increase in global macadamia crop.
– 10% increase in global almond consumption expected due to low prices and rising demand in China and India for healthy products.
– US walnuts ready for bull market when the latest crop is almost sold out.
Production
The 2021-22 global macadamia production is likely to increase by 9% year-on-year to 266,400 tonnes thanks to a combination of acreage expansion and better water management in Australia, China and South Africa, it was announced during the virtual International Nut and Dried Fruit Congress held from 25-27 May.
The 2021 US almond output is expected to reach 3.2 billion pounds, 3% more year-on-year, thanks to a record acreage of 1.33 million acres, according to the initial USDA forecast on 12 May.
Spain’s 2021 almond output is expected to fall by 5.5% year-on-year to 109,360 tonnes due to a combination of frosts in non-irrigated areas and poor pollination.
The 2020-21 Argentinian peanut crop is expected to fall by 6.8% to 910,000 (kernel) tonnes and exports by 13.6% to 623,610 tonnes despite planted acreage increasing by 10% to 385,590 hectares, according to the Argentine Chamber of Peanut (CAM).
The 2021-22 global date crop is forecast at 1.11 million tonnes, 11% more, thanks to acreage expansion in the Middle East and North Africa.
Demand
The global almond consumption is expected to increase by 10% y-o-y to 1.72 mln tonnes in the 2021-22 season due to the rising demand from China and India for healthy products and abundant and cheap supply.
Demand for hazelnuts is weak and international buyers want to wait before they commit to buying for Q4. Travel restrictions and lockdowns due to Covid-19 make it very difficult to predict consumption.
Chinese demand for peanut oil is still at record levels. Indian exports of peanut oil to China may reach 225,000 tonnes in April-March 2020-21, according to the Indian Oilseeds and Produce Exports Promotion Council (IOPEPC), up from 40,000 tonnes in the previous season.
Trade
High logistical costs are hitting international and domestic sales of processors and packers such as Spain’s Borges and Importaco and the US company John Sanfilippo & Son. In addition, some port authorities such as the Vietnamese are proposing to increase fees to shipping companies to fund updated handling equipment.
The Almond Board of California (ABC) April 2021 position report showed that US almond exports last month were 179.83 mln lbs versus 103.49 mln lbs in the same month in 2020. This brought seasonal (August 2020-April 2021) exports to 1.62 billion lbs compared with 1.27 bln lbs in the first nine months of the 2019-20 season, an increase of nearly 28%.
US pistachio sales reached 24,360 (short) tons this April, unchanged from March 20201 but 27% more year-on-year, bringing seasonal shipments (September-April) to 227,860 tons, 12% up y-o-y.
Prices
Vietnamese cashew prices are firming, and fob quotes are as follows: WW180: USD3.85-3.90/lb; WW240: USD3.50-3.55/lb; WW320: USD3.10-3.15/lb: DW: USD2.50-2.55/lb; WB: USD1.65-1.70/lb; WS: USD2.00-2.05/lb.
The Walnut Board of California (WBC) reveals that 91.8% of the 2020-21 crop is sold or committed in April. Many farmers and packers are halting sales and renegotiating prices, after a long bearish period. Prices for Californian walnuts in the first fortnight of May are: Chandler LHP 20 at USD2.5 per pound; domestic LHP between USD2.25-2.35/lb; Combo Halves and pieces between USD1.85-1.90/lb.
Dried fig prices are rising because the 2020-21 crop is set to sell out. Prices were at USD5,258/tonne cif UK for Lerida no 6/7 this May, 2% more than in April.
Forward view
– Covid-19 vaccination process and the gradual end of lockdowns and restrictions, whose end will grant a sharp rise in nut exports.
– International food companies predict that container shortage may finish in Q4, once the global port congestion is been gradually fixed by governments in Q3, cutting logistics costs.
– USDA’s objective almond forecast will determine prices between June and the 2021 harvest (August-September).
– Global dried fruit preferences after heavy rains and hails damaged raisin and prune crops in France, Chile, Argentina and South Africa, Turkish processors proposing to use dried apricots as a substitute in the latest virtual International Nut and Dried Fruit Congress, held from 25-27 May.
(IHSmarkit)
