Market Briefing: Dried Fruit and Nuts -06 June 2021
– World almond production projected to be slightly higher than last crop year.
– Turkish dried apricot production forecast to gain by 22% in 2021-22.
– South African raisin exports 8% ahead in January-April 2021.
Production
This month’s online conference of the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council has ensured that the industry is now up to date with the latest production estimates across many of the key categories of nuts and dried fruits.
Turkey’s 2021 hazelnut crop is projected at 790,000 in-shell tonnes compared with an estimated 640,000 tonnes in 2020. Italy, in contrast, is expecting this year a much lower crop of 70,000 tonnes after its record 160,000 tonnes in 2020.
World almond production is set for a moderate increase this year (2021-22) to 1.77 million tonnes from 1.73 mln tonnes in 2020-21. The US crop is forecast by the USDA at 3.2 billion pounds, but the industry expects it to end up below this.
The US 2021 pistachio crop is pegged at 400,000 in-shell tonnes compared with 477,000 tonnes in 2020.
Frost and heat has reduced Iran’s 2021 pistachio crop to an expected 145,000 in-shell tonnes from 190,000 tonnes in 2020.
South Africa’s recently harvested 2021 raisin crop is estimated at 72,000 farmer stock tonnes.
Turkish 2021 dried apricot production is expected to increase by 22% from that of last year to 110,000 tonnes, as the trees are in an ‘on-year’.
The global dried fig crop is expected to reach 142,500 tonnes in the 2021-22 season, 3% down year-on-year. Turkey may total 75,500 tonnes, 12.5% less, experiencing an ‘off-year’. Meanwhile, the US is expecting another disappointing crop of 8,000 tonnes, 500 tonnes down.
Demand
Export figures (see Trade below) confirm that demand for Turkish hazelnuts is down this season. This nut is heavily dependent on premium chocolate demand and sales through gift shops etc. and both have been hit by the Covid-19 influenced limits on travel. However, trade sources this week reported a significant increase in demand for new crop.
Almonds and pistachios continue to generate strong offtake and global industry sources at the INC event were understandably optimistic for the future growth prospects.
Raisins South Africa cites increased snacking at home and use of raisins in home baking as helping to boost demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. Export volumes (see Trade below) reflect this upturn.
Trade
Turkish hazelnut exports between 1 September 2020-30 May 2021 totalled around 230,545 tonnes, down from 293,573 tonnes in the same period of 2019-20.
South African raisin exports are about 8% ahead for the January-end of April 2021 period at around 20,000 tonnes.
Turkey’s dried apricot industry is considering proposing dried apricots as a complementary product to prunes, the idea being that this would help cover gaps in prune supply.
Logistical issues (including high freight rates) continue to challenge trade flows and create difficulties for exporters.
Prices
Turkish 11-13 hazelnuts are quoted on the spot market at USD6,300 per tonne cpt Europe. Shipment indications on the same are at USD5,890/tonne cif Europe.
US almonds were described as competitively priced against other tree nuts by sources at the INC event. US Non Pareil select 23/25 shelled, are listed on the IHS Markit database at USD5,842/tonne cif NW Europe and standard sheller run at USD4,188/tonne cif NW Europe.
Turkish dried apricots continue to command high prices. The No. 8 size is listed at USD3,200/tonne cif UK.
(IHSmarkit)
